As
we learned on September 11, 2001, geopolitical
threats can materialize in a moment and change the reality of our lives
forever. For investors, managers, and citizens, the real challenge is to be
prepared to make the most of whatever the future holds.
According
to Stratfor Global Intelligence,1 threats that may be realized in the coming decade are looming from numerous
quarters. The obvious ones include Iraq and Iran. Other threats are not so
obvious, such as Mexico.
Mexico
is particularly important, since it shares our border. The efforts of
authorities to stem the tide of drugs and the associated violence are
threatening the very stability of the country itself. There were more deaths
from the drug cartels there in 2008 alone than there were U.S. soldiers killed
in Iraq since 2004.
As
pointed out by the U.S. Joint Forces Command in its Joint Operating
Environment2 report, weak and failing states like
Mexico and Pakistan present major challenges and increase uncertainty for the
developed world. The historical examples of Lebanon and Yugoslavia show how
quickly a state can fail and what the long-term consequences can be. This
makes it all the more important to look carefully at what Pakistan and Mexico
may hold in store for the world.
If
Pakistan were to collapse, its nuclear weapons could fall into the hands of
terrorists, sharply ratcheting up global insecurity. If Mexico were to
collapse, it is not at all certain that the border could be secured. Even as
we speak, the broad economic crisis means that Mexico, which is heavily
dependent on the U.S. for its economic survival, is becoming more
hard-pressed. That only makes criminal gangs bolder in their activities, since
they have little to lose.
Both
of these countries are being undermined by unconventional forces, such as
militias and terrorist groups. These groups operate across national boundaries
and are not subject to the normal controls on power, such as treaties. For
example, Hezbollah is a militia that has the weapons and training to fight like
a state, but has none of the political and social conventions that restrain
real states in the use of force.
Modern
information technology — as well as low-cost military...
