spacer ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

Firms Proactively Manage Demographic Risk
Published: April 2008

The aging work force in America and around the globe will transform business priorities and policies. The statistics alone are impressive. In the U.S., people between the ages of 55 and 64 represent the fastest-growing segment of the workforce.

The problem is more acute in some industries than others. One-third of all workers in the energy sector are over 50. That percentage will grow by 25 percent in the next 12 years. During that time, the number of workers over 50 in Japan’s financial sector will rise by 61 percent. Even in China, workers in manufacturing who are over 50 will double in the next 15 years.

This represents a number of potential risks for corporations. Labor shortages could ensue as workers retire. In a knowledge economy, many of those workers will be very hard to replace and can take critical knowledge with them. And, as workers age, productivity may also decline.

But, according to a recent Harvard Business Review1 article written by partners at Boston Consulting Group, companies can begin to close the talent gap now by using a combination of training, transfers, recruitment, retention, productivity improvements, and outsourcing. In addition, they can keep their older workers more productive by putting in place “workplace accommodations.”

These are revised compensation structures, performance incentives, and targeted health care management programs designed to meet the needs of targeted employees more effectively. Collectively, these efforts represent a program designed to proactively manage demographic risk and this promises to be one of the most strategically crucial priorities for top-performing firms in the coming decade.

The key to success for most firms is to look forward at least 15 years, identifying needs as long as possible before they arise. Each of the two main threats, a shortage of labor and flagging productivity, must be assessed differently. In the first instance, a company will have to determine the discrepancy between its need for workers and its ability to...

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