December 2004 Trends Magazine — www.trends-magazine.com
spacer DECEMBER 2004 FEATURE

Moving South

Americans are migrating from northern metropolises to southern cities and towns in unprecedented numbers. At the same time, companies are relocating their operations to the South to serve their needs and to take advantage of the South's other advantages. What does this mean to the economies of northern cities? What will be the impact on the southern cities with already limited resources? And what opportunities will it create for businesses? We'll provide the answers.

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spacer INSIDE DECEMBER 2004
The Increasingly Binary Global Economy

Since Nixon went to China in 1972, China has been a factor in the global economy. However, only during this latest boom has it come to be the second most important nation in the world. What lies ahead for China's economy, and how will it affect U.S. companies? We'll explain.

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U.S. Household Debt and Savings Rates: Much Ado About Nothing

Since 2000, mortgage debt has gone up by more than 10 percent annually, while household income has increased by just 4.5 percent a year. Does this mean that the U.S. is about to be hit by a wave of defaults and foreclosures? And what will be the impact of rising household debt on consumer spending, and on the economy as a whole? Finally, what are the reasons behind the declining household saving rate? We'll reveal the surprising truth behind these numbers, and tell you what to expect in the years to come.

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The Creativity Crisis

The secret to America's success is often overlooked: It is the number one destination for creative, brilliant individuals from around the world. But now, the global competition for talented people is heating up, and the U.S. is in danger of losing its edge in innovation. Foreign students' applications to American graduate schools are down by 32 percent. Applications for visas have dropped by 40 percent. It's no coincidence that the U.S. is rapidly losing its lead in patents and scientific literature, or that it has fallen from first to sixth among countries on Michael Porter's Global Innovation Index. We'll explain why this is happening, and discuss what can be done to reverse this ominous trend.

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The Need for Speed and the Supersonic Boom

By 2010, ultrafast corporate jets will transport executives across the country or across the ocean in half the time of today's flights. How will this trend impact the way the world does business? What lessons will it teach the commercial airline industry? How can you profit from this proliferation of elitist aviation? We'll answer these questions, and offer four forecasts about the future of this trend.

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The "Efficient Market Hypothesis" Gives Way to "Behavioral Finance"

For decades, the academics have contended that you can't beat the market because all of the available insight is built into the prices. According to that theory, investors who beat the market are simply lucky. But today, even the academics are beginning to understand that the market is driven by a lot of irrational emotions, and that studying the psychology of the market can provide significant advantage. We'll examine some of the implications for public policy, executive compensation, and your personal finances.

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