June 2009 Trends Magazine — www.trends-magazine.com
spacer JUNE 2009 FEATURE

The "Answer Engine" Cometh

When Tim Berners-Lee invented the World Wide Web in 1993, no one envisioned how ubiquitous and indispensable it would become. As the content and user base of the Web has grown exponentially, new tools have arisen to enable us to manage it effectively. These range from "data repositories" like Wikipedia to "search engines" like Google. But, none of these tools has ever permitted users to address English language questions directly to the world's collective knowledge and get back specific answers to those questions — until now! The first generation of "answer engine" technology is now in the preliminary testing phase. Some are already calling this technology the "Google killer." And, it promises to radically transform how you use the Web. What will this technology mean for your business, your career, your investments, and your everyday life? We'll help provide those answers.

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spacer INSIDE JUNE 2009
How the Recession Is Preparing Us for the Future

Recessions, depressions, and collapsing bubbles are always painful. The winds of creative destruction sweep away the weak and leave the strong. In the wake of bankruptcies and down-sizings, assets and skills can be redeployed to create new wealth in a new cycle. Today, we are coming to the end of the downward cycle and getting ready for the redeployment. What can you do to benefit most from this crisis in the years just ahead? Keep listening to find out.

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The Road Ahead for Housing

As far back as 2003, the Trends editors identified how faulty assumptions and perverse incentives were leading to a housing bubble. They correctly forecast the collapse, including the timing and magnitude of the bubble's burst. But, even the TRENDS Editors underestimated the fragility of the broader system and the consequent collateral damage caused by the bubble's collapse. Looking ahead, what can you expect? What are the risk factors? Most importantly, what does this mean for you? Keep listening to find out.

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Flawed Thinking and the Financial Meltdown

From the front lines of subprime mortgage lending, all the way through to the glittering towers of structured finance, almost everyone willingly accepted flawed assumptions rather than seeking empirical support for their decisions. So, how could this happen? Why was everyone so gullible? What can be done to make sure it doesn't happen again? We'll provide some answers.

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It's Time for Evidence-Based Management

Never in history have we had access to more information, on a more timely basis. Yet, every new revelation about the financial crisis has us asking, "How could so many smart people consistently make such horrendously bad decisions?" Aside from a smattering of willful corruption, the answer is that all too many crucial decisions were based on untested but strongly held beliefs; what the decision-makers had done in the past; or uncritical "benchmarking" of what "yesterday's winners" had done.

As we rebuild from the rubble of this catastrophe, now is the time for managers to adopt an approach that will enable us to avoid similar mistakes going forward. The Trends editors argue that for the first time in history, the technology and motivations are in place to implement "evidence-based management." As we'll explain, this approach, growing out of best practices in the medical profession, can deliver a substantial competitive advantage to those who rigorously adopt it.

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Economic Uncertainty Continues in 2010 and 2011

The global financial crisis is entering a new stage: Deleveraging continues. The Federal Reserve continues to take aggressive action to fight deflation. Fiscal stimulus is moving through the pipeline. Consumer confidence is rebounding. So what's likely to happen in the coming year and beyond? What are the biggest risk factors? What are the biggest opportunities? Keep listening as the Trends editors offer their best assessment.

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